Lesson 4D.7.2
4D.7.2 Expected monetary values and utility Quiz: Pearson Edexcel Further Maths, Unit 46
20 questions
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Lesson 4D.7.2, Expected monetary values and utility: 20 multiple choice questions for the Pearson Edexcel Further Maths (9FM0), Unit 46: Decision analysis, written with Revision Ninja.
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The 20 questions
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What is the expected monetary value of a set of outcomes?
- The sum of the payoffs regardless of probability.
- The sum of probability times payoff over all outcomes.
- The average of the payoffs with equal weight.
- The largest payoff times its probability.
-
What is utility used for in decision analysis?
- Measuring the number of outcomes.
- Reflecting a decision maker's attitude to risk, so that alternatives can be compared.
- Calculating the EMV of chance nodes only.
- Replacing probabilities with weights.
-
How does a risk-averse decision maker typically behave?
- They ignore the probabilities altogether.
- They value a sure amount more than a gamble with the same or higher EMV.
- They always prefer the gamble with the highest possible payoff.
- They are indifferent to all outcomes.
-
How does a risk-seeking decision maker behave?
- They prefer a gamble to a sure amount with the same EMV.
- They use only the smallest payoff.
- They always prefer a sure amount to a gamble.
- Their utility function is always zero.
-
How is the expected utility of a gamble calculated?
- Take the largest utility in the gamble.
- Sum the probability times the utility of each outcome.
- Take the utility of the expected payoff only.
- Sum the utilities without probabilities.
-
When is EMV the same as expected utility?
- When the utility function is linear in money.
- When the probabilities are equal.
- When the utility function is zero at zero money.
- When all payoffs are negative.
-
On a utility scale, which outcomes are usually assigned 0 and 1?
- The mean outcome has utility 1 and the worst is -1.
- The worst outcome has utility 0 and the best has utility 1.
- Every outcome has utility equal to its money value.
- All utilities must be negative.
-
A risky option gives a 0.5 chance of 300 and a 0.5 chance of -100. What is its EMV?
- 100
- 50
- 0
- 200
-
Option A has EMV 100 and a sure option B pays 80. Which is chosen under EMV?
- Neither, since the EMVs are negative.
- Option B, since its payoff is certain.
- Option A, since its EMV of 100 exceeds 80.
- Both are equal.
-
With U(300) = 1 and U(-100) = 0, what is the expected utility of option A?
- 0
- 1
- 0.5
- 0.6
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If U(80) = 0.6, what is the expected utility of the sure option B?
- 0.5
- 1
- 0.8
- 0.6
-
With those utilities, which option has the higher expected utility?
- Both are equal.
- Option B, since 0.6 is greater than 0.5.
- Option A, since its EMV is higher.
- Neither can be compared.
-
If U(80) = 0.4 instead, which option has the higher expected utility?
- Both are equal.
- Option A, since 0.5 is greater than 0.4.
- Neither can be compared.
- Option B, since 0.4 is greater than 0.5.
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A gamble has a 0.2 chance of 500 and a 0.8 chance of 0. Which is preferred under EMV to a sure 90?
- Neither, since EMV must be above 150.
- The gamble, since its EMV of 100 exceeds 90.
- The sure 90, since 80% chance of nothing outweighs the rest.
- Both, since EMV only matters for chance events.
-
A gamble pays 40 with probability 0.25 and 0 with probability 0.75. What is its EMV?
- 10
- 25
- 40
- 0
-
A gamble pays 0 or 100 with probability one half each. What is its EMV?
- 100
- 50
- 25
- 0
-
A decision maker has utility U(x) = sqrt(x). A gamble gives 100 with probability 0.5 and 0 with probability 0.5. What sure amount has the same utility as this gamble?
- 10
- 25
- 5
- 50
-
For the same decision maker with U(x) = sqrt(x), is a sure 30 preferred to the gamble with expected utility 5?
- No, the gamble, since its EMV of 50 exceeds 30.
- Neither, since utilities cannot be compared.
- Yes, the sure 30, since sqrt(30) is about 5.48, which exceeds 5.
- Both are equal, since 50 minus 30 is 20.
-
Why might two decision makers with the same EMV choose differently?
- EMV values are randomly generated for each person.
- They always have different probability estimates by definition.
- Their utility functions differ, so their attitudes to risk differ.
- One of them must have miscalculated the EMV.
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What must be checked before expected utility is used to rank options?
- That the decision tree has exactly three branches.
- That the utility values are consistent with the decision maker's preferences over outcomes.
- That every payoff is positive.
- That all probabilities are equal.
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